Can Republicans regain the White House without embracing immigration reform in 2016? The conventional wisdom among the GOP leadership, from John Boehner on down, says no. Meanwhile, Eric Cantor’s shocking primary election loss makes it more unlikely that Republican candidates will support immigration reform.
In fact, a GOP victory is possible — and even “plausible” — if you define the term to include the most GOP-friendly combination of turnout rates and victory shares that has occurred since 1980. The best-case scenario assumes the following:
• Whites revert to their 2004 turnout peak.
• Turnout rates for blacks, Asians, and Hispanics decline to 1996 levels. With Obama (certainly) not on the ticket, and immigration reform (hopefully) squelched by GOP opposition, this confluence is not inconceivable.
• A popular, populist GOP Presidential candidate achieves the same vote shares for white and minority voters enjoyed by Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide.
Under these assumptions GPS in 2016 is a whopping 55.2 percent:
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Best-Case Scenario: GOP Popular Vote Share, 2016
|
|||
|
% of voters in each group(a) |
GOP vote share of Ethnic Group(b) |
GOP Share of Total Popular Vote (Col. 1 x col. 2) |
|
|
White |
74.4% |
66.0% |
49.1% |
|
Black |
10.5% |
9.0% |
0.9% |
|
Hispanic |
10.0% |
34.0% |
3.4% |
|
Asian |
3.2% |
34.0% |
1.1% |
|
Other |
2.0% |
34.0% |
0.7% |
|
Total |
100.0% |
55.2% |
|
a. Calculated by applying 2004 white turnout rate and 1996 minority turnout rates to 2016 voting age population projections.
b.1984 GOP shares; Asian and other shares set at Hispanic share.
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_12.html
Even if the white share of the GOP vote remains at Romney’s 59 percent level, the GOP candidate would achieve a narrow popular vote victory in 2016 under this scenario.