Following the recent loss of life due to a cyclone in Bangladesh Dr. Garrett Hardin's 20 year-old column came to mind. It is here reprinted with permission from Science, 12 February 1971, Volume 171, Number 3971, � 1971 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Professor Hardin has retired from teaching in the biology department of the University of California at Santa Barbara.
Those of us who are deeply concerned about population and the environment - econuts, we're called, - are accused of seeing herbicides in trees, pollution in running brooks, radiation in rocks, and overpopulation everywhere. There is merit in the accusation.
I was in Calcutta when the cyclone struck East Bengal in November 1970. Early dispatches spoke of 15,000 dead, but the estimates rapidly escalated to 2,000,000 and then dropped back to 500,000. A nice round number it will do as well as any, for we will never know. The nameless ones who died, unimportant people far beyond the fringes of the social power structure, left no trace of their existence. Pakistani parents repaired the population loss in just 40 days, and the world turned its attention to other matters.1
What killed those unfortunate people? The cyclone, newspapers said. But one can just as logically say that overpopulation killed them. The Gangetic Delta is barely above sea level. Every year several thousand people are killed in quite ordinary storms. If Pakistan were not overcrowded, no sane man would bring his family to such a place. Ecologically speaking, a delta belongs to the river and the sea; man obtrudes there at his peril.
In the web of life every event has many antecedents. Only by an arbitrary decision can we designate a single antecedent as cause. Our choice is biased - biased to protect our egos against the onslaught of unwelcome truths. As T.S. Eliot put it in Burnt Norton
Go, go, go, said the bird human kind
Cannot bear very much reality.
Were we to identify overpopulation as the cause of a half-million deaths, we would threaten ourselves with a question to which we do not know the answer How can we control population without recourse to repugnant measures? Fearfully we close our minds to an inventory of possibilities. Instead, we say that a cyclone caused the deaths, thus relieving ourselves of responsibility for this and future catastrophes. Fate is so comforting.
Every year we list tuberculosis, leprosy, enteric diseases, or animal parasites as the cause of death of millions of people. It is well known that malnutrition is an important antecedent of death in all these categories; and that malnutrition is connected with overpopulation. But overpopulation is not called the cause of death. We cannot bear the thought.
People are dying now of respiratory diseases in Tokyo, Birmingham, and Gary, because of the need for more industry. The need for more food justifies overfertilization of the land, leading to eutrophication of the waters, and lessened fish production - which leads to more need for food.
What will we say when the power shuts down some fine summer on our eastern seaboard and several thousand people die of heat prostration? Will we blame the weather? Or the power companies for not building enough generators? Or the econuts for insisting on pollution controls?
One thing is certain we won't blame the deaths on overpopulation. No one ever dies of overpopulation. It is unthinkable.
1 The UN Population Card indicates that the population of Bangladesh has a net gain of 6 persons per minute. Please see the article about the Population Card on page 216.